Avalanche Forecast

More than three feet of snow has fallen in since Friday morning. The initial snow fell at cold temperatures and may be weakly bonded to a hard underlying crust. The most recent snow is falling with strengthening winds and gradually warmer temperatures making slab avalanches more likely. Avoid suspected wind loaded terrain, especially near ridges and choose conservative terrain during this time of elevated danger.

Three natural avalanches were reported by park rangers at Hurricane Ridge on S and E faces around 5000 ft as of Sunday afternoon. The slabs appeared shallow from a distance, but the paths were actively re-loading and the time of avalanche trigger was either Saturday or Sunday.

A very weak snow interface was confirmed down 26 inches (failed on isolation of a column) on an E aspect at 5100 ft. The old snow beneath that interface was examined by NWAC professionals in the Hurricane Ridge area on Thursday, finding 5-7 inches of low-density snow above the most recent crust surfaces. The snow surface was universally weak with more facets (weak snow) on north through east aspects near and above treeline in the terrain they traveled. Avalanches are more likely to fail on these weaker, older snow interfaces. Anywhere the snow has any cohesion at all, it will become a slab. Large and dangerous avalanches may be triggered on Tuesday.

The avalanche danger at Hurricane Ridge continues to increase since Friday when NPS rangers reported natural and skier triggered loose dry avalanches releasing on steep northerly aspects as the snow piled up on Friday. The storm continued into Saturday with moderate winds developing Friday night and delivering 2-2.5’ of storm total accumulation from the Park entrance up to Hurricane Ridge. Denser new storm snow and wind-driven snow Monday night into Tuesday will make for dangerous avalanche conditions.

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