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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 4th, 2017–Apr 5th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cascades - East.

Difficult and dangerous travel and avalanche conditions will develop in the back country on Wednesday where careful snow pack evaluation and cautious terrain choices will be essential.

Detailed Forecast

Heads up because winter isn't done yet and the quiet weather and snowpack seen the past couple days is going to see significant snow and rain depending on location on Wednesday!

A front will stall over the Northwest on Wednesday with a series of waves moving south to north along the front. This should cause periods of moderate to heavy rain or snow on the Washington volcanoes especially Mt Baker with light to moderate rain or snow in most other areas. Precipitation should fall as snow in the above treeline and perhaps down into the near treeline zones.

New storm slab should build in the above and perhaps down into the near treeline in most areas and will be deepest where there is the most new, rapidly accumulating new snowfall. New storm slab should be very touchy especially if there is a daytime warning trend.

Loose wet avalanches should be seen in most areas in the near and below treeline. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, pinwheels and initial natural releases that indicate an increasing loose wet avalanche danger.

Recent cornices are very large and will get new loads on Wednesday. Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are dangerous and unpredictable. Give cornices a wide berth if traveling along ridge-lines and avoid slopes below large cornices. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

New wind slabs won't be added to the lengthy list of avalanche problems on Wednesday but should also build in the above and perhaps down into the near treeline in most areas and will be deepest where there is the most new snowfall. New wind slab should also be very touchy especially if there is a daytime warning trend.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

March was wet and wild for weather and avalanches in the Cascades.

The last major system in March was seen Tuesday and Wednesday. Another 5-10 inches fell near the Cascade crest along with a warming trend and increasing W-SW alpine winds. Lesser amounts were seen further east of the crest and at lower elevations. 

Cooling and showery weather Thursday allowed wet snow to begin refreezing with light amounts of new snow in most areas. The winds diminished Thursday and combined with daytime warming, this has allowed for wind slab and storm slab to begin stabilizing.

A weak front crossed the Northwest on Saturday morning, causing light rain mainly along the Cascade west slopes. This was followed by an upper trough on that caused some light amounts of snow mainly along the Cascade west slopes at much cooler temperatures on Sunday. 

Fair but cool weather has been seen in the Olympics and Cascades Monday and Tuesday. Reports generally indicate strong surface or near surface crust layers and shallow recent snow. 

Recent Observations

North

The NCMG were in the Cutthroat area on Monday 3/26 and found 15-20 cm of recent snow on a firm base. Loose wet avalanches and cornices were the main concerns. 

On Tuesday 2/27, the NCMG in the Highway 20 Hairpin area found that ski and hand tests indicated good bonds of recent snow to previous snow. Loose wet avalanches were the main concern at lower elevations. Touchy or stubborn wind and storm slab, and cornices were still expected near and above treeline.

An observation via the NWAC Observations page here from the Washington Pass area on Tuesday 3/27 reported small ski triggered 10 in wind or storm slab on steep E slopes near a ridge line.

Central

No recent observations. 

South

No recent observations. 

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

 

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

 

A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.

Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1