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Avalanche Forecast

Nov 24th, 2021–Nov 25th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Columbia.

Avalanche hazard will rise with an incoming winter storm on Thursday. I'm expecting most areas to see around 25 cm of new snow by the end of Thursday. If storm amounts build up to 35 cm or more, consider the alpine and treeline avalanche danger to be high.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Around 10 cm new snow. Strong Southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Thursday: 15-20 cm new snow. Freezing levels rising to approximately 1400 m in the afternoon. Moderate 

southwesterly winds at treeline elevations, strong or extreme southwesterly winds at ridgetop.

Friday: Around 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1400 m. Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Saturday: Some clear spells in the morning. Around 5 cm new snow in the afternoon. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent size 1.5-2 wind slab avalanches have been reported from exposed locations at higher elevations (above approximately 2000 m) on various aspects.

Expect avalanche activity to increase as the storm builds through the day on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent snow sits above a rain crust from mid-November. This rain crust exists at elevations to at least 1800 m and potentially up to 2100 m. The wind has moved the recent snow into wind deposits in exposed alpine areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Avoid lee and cross loaded slopes in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Natural avalanches are likely to start running on steep slopes when accumulations reach approximately 35 cm of new snow. On windy slopes, this threshold will be reached much sooner and their dense nature will make them easier to trigger.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5