Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Waterton, Waterton Lakes.
The persistent slab problem may be becoming active as the snowpack warms up. Windslabs may be able to trigger a larger persistent slab, however we have limited data and a lot of uncertainty around this problem. Exercise caution in wind affected and thin rocky terrain.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, a few natural windslabs in steep slopes below cliffs were observed, and one natural size 2 slab avalanche which we suspect was a persistent slab. Numerous dry loose avalanches to size 2 were observed on steep slopes Monday and Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
20-30 cm storm snow is being redistributed into windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. These are sitting over storm snow and older windslabs. The January drought layer is 30 - 60 cm down. This layer includes facetted snow on northerly aspects or a melt freeze crust below treeline and on steep solar slopes into the alpine. Generally, the snowpack has become weak and facetted.
Snowpack depths at treeline range from 100 - 160 cm.
Weather Summary
A continued warming trend with increased wind over the next few days.
Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for the most up to date information.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
New windslabs are forming on lee slopes with southwest winds up to 60 km/hr and fresh storm snow available to move around.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Lots of uncertainty with this problem, but we suspect it will become more reactive in the warm up and with new snow later this week. Its possible smaller windslabs could step down to this layer and cause a larger avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5