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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 1st, 2016–Apr 2nd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Pay close attention to the amount of cloud cover and winds.  If the sun comes out and/or winds decrease expect avalanche danger to trend towards HIGH.  Early starts and early finishes are crucial.  Lots of Natural slides recently.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Winds are forecast to increase on Saturday with a bit more cloud cover.  This will help to keep the snowpack slightly cooler and hold it together a bit longer.  The freezing level is still forecast to be around 2500m so if the sun comes out of the wind dies down, the snowpack can again rapidly change and head into HIGH.  On friday the temperatures climbed 10deg in two hours so its important to note that when the sun comes out, stability will decrease quickly. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches on all aspects except pure north in the Alpine.  A new slabs likely caused by the hear were also observed on E through W aspects up to sz 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread crusts can be found on all aspects except for true north above 2400m.  These crusts on south aspects are up to 20cm thick and fully supportive.  In travels on Friday, forecasters did not note any locations where the crust did not support the weight of a skier.  As temperatures warm up during the day, these crusts are breaking down, loose wet avalanches begin to occur and as the heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack, deep slab avalanches become likely.  There is a brief window between the two wherein there is good corn snow skiing but your timing has ton be bang on.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The heat being pushed into the snowpack is waking up the deep basal layers triggerring some larger avalanches that are failing at the ground.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Loose Wet

All aspects and elevations except pure north aspects above 2400m.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are large and drooping. When they fail, they have enough mass to wake up the deep basal layers. These events have been occurring.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6