Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2012 7:18AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Dry and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

10cm of new snow is possible by Tuesday morning. Surface hoar, facets and sun crusts have now been buried and the new snow is not expected to bond well to any of them. Avalanche hazard could rise to CONSIDERABLE if more snow falls than is forecasted.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Up to 10cm of new snow between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Winds expected to be light to moderate W to NW. Cool alpine temperatures expected.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing observed or reported.

Snowpack Summary

2 to 4cm of low density Hn overlies previous surfaces including SH, FC, HSL, SC and old tracks. Profile at 2200m indicates a well settled midpack with the basal FC/DH appearing to gain some strength. CTH(25) PC down 34cm was the only significant shear.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Avalanche activity is expected to rise rapidly as snow load is added to the buried surface hoar, sun crust, facets and hard slabs. Winds from the W to NW will form slabs on lee features. The new snow is bonding poorly with the previous surfaces.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

As snowfall amounts increase avalanche activity of this nature is expected to be widespread in steep terrain. Debris may run long distances where sun crust is buried.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets and depth hoar still persist at the base of the snowpack. Skier triggering of this layer is still possible from thin or rocky snowpack areas. Choose routes that avoid these kinds of features especially in steeper terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 6

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2012 3:00AM