Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 20th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs.
JSmith,
Avalanche Canada
Large triggers, such as falling cornices, have the potential to trigger very large avalanches on a deeply buried weak layer at the bottom of the snowpack. Steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas on large alpine faces are the most likely slopes for this to occur.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -15 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level 1100 m.
SATURDAY: 2-5 cm snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -9 C, freezing level 1000 m.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 2-5 cm., light to moderate south wind, alpine temperature -11 C, freezing level 700 m.
Avalanche Summary
A couple naturally triggered size 2 and several skier triggered size 1 wind slabs were reported on easterly aspects at treeline and above on Tuesday.Â
There have also been a few sporadic large avalanches over the past week. Most recently, a large (size 3) deep persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered on Sunday just outside the forecast region near Mt. Seven. Photos in the Mountain Information Network report show this avalanche was initiated by a skier causing a whumpf on a ridge that released a small wind slab on an east-facing alpine slope which then stepped down to the facets at the bottom of the snowpack. Another size 2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a southwest aspect in steep and rocky alpine terrain near Golden on Thursday (see MIN report). Additionally, a large snowmobile triggered avalanche was reported on a convex roll at treeline in Quartz Creek on Wednesday (see MIN report). These isolated, but large avalanches suggest that the Purcells region is currrently in a low probability, high consequence scenario that requires careful snowpack and terrain evaluation.
Snowpack Summary
Surface conditions are a mix of low density snow in sheltered terrain, sun crusts on solar aspects, and isolated wind slabs at higher elevations. At lower elevations (below 1600-2000 m) 20-40 cm of snow sits above a hard rain crust. The middle of the snowpack is strong, but the base of the snowpack contains basal facets that have resulted in sporadic, large deep persistent slab avalanches, especially in shallow rocky start zones.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack continues to pose a deep persistent slab avalanche problem. The most recent activity has been focused around the Golden area, but steep, rocky, shallow terrain throughout the region should be treated with caution. Avoid big alpine slopes that are threatened by cornices overhead.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 21st, 2020 5:00PM
