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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 10th, 2018–Jan 11th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

A touchy storm slab sits on top of a sensitive surface hoar layer primed for human triggering.  Time to be conservative in your trip plans! Make low angle, low consequence terrain choices!

Weather Forecast

Alpine high of -10C with light precipitation and moderate W'ly winds. Thursday through Friday looks like light snow, cool temperatures and shifting light to moderate winds first SE on Thursday and back to W on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of storm snow resides over the Jan 4 interface and the Dec 15 surface hoar (PWL) is down ~75cm. Monday through Tuesday was a tipping point of storm snow over weak layers. Snowpack tests show propagation potential and a high likelihood for skier triggering. The Dec 15th Surface Hoar layer is most reactive at tree line and below.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's avalanche control produced numerous size 3 slab avalanches with one size 4. Monday a skier was fully buried by a self triggered slide releasing on the Dec 15 layer. Also reported Monday were several skier controlled avalanches to size 1.5 reported from the backcountry and skier remotes from 10m away, failing on the Jan 4 layer.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

45cm of recent storm snow is settling into a slab assisted by warm temperatures (-1 to -5). The Jan 4 surface hoar is down ~45cm and found to be up to 15mm in size. If triggered, small avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL with big results.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 15th PWL is widespread around tree line and below tree line, buried ~80cm. New snow and warm temps have slabbed up the upper snow pack! This interface became reactive Monday, burying one skier in a terrain trap.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3