Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2018–Jan 31st, 2018

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

We are in a waiting game now. The new snow load is creeping up. Eventually the scales will tip and the deeper layers will fail. Avoid high consequence terrain right now.

Confidence

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and the occasional flurry tomorrow. Nothing significant for new snow. A high temp of -14. Light west winds (20-30km/hr)

Avalanche Summary

A sz2.5 was noted near Burstall Pass. The actual timing is uncertain as it likely blew in quickly. It looked to be about 24hrs old. There were 2 separate fractures, indicating the step down mid slope.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of new snow on the road and 15cm up high. Sustained alpine winds and snow have combined to create new wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. These will be reactive in their own right, but the larger worry is the rapid loading of the deeper weak layers. The Jan 6th layer is now down almost a meter at treeline. This will put the Dec 15 layer down 120-140cm. Cornices have also seen some significant growth in the last 24hrs.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh windslabs are widespread. The older slabs are still there, and very stressed with the new load.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopesAvoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

New load is the key variable with this layer. How it handles the new load will likely vary from area to area.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3