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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 8th, 2019–Mar 9th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

New wind slabs are out there. Luckily the loading pattern is predictable, and limited to alpine and exposed treeline areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

Tomorrow will be similar to today. Mostly cloudy with a few flurries. Light winds at all elevations and temperatures ranging from -17 to -8. The week end appears to be consistent with this more seasonal weather pattern.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today, but skies were obscured most of the day.

Snowpack Summary

The last 24 hours has been windy in the alpine and treeline areas. The westerly winds have built new windslabs near ridges, and loaded many alpine bowls. Treeline also has new slabs, but not as widespread; they tend to disappear quickly below ridge lines. It's important to remember how bad the facetted mid/lower pack is. In all honesty, after a record breaking cold snap like that one, this forecaster has NO trust in the midpack. How it will behave with a new load and warming trend is a question few, if any of us can answer with any certainty. In times like this, let mellow terrain guide you.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Variable winds have left us with new windslabs in the alpine and upper treeline. A "pulling in the reigns" mindset will be the way to approach your ski day.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

This layer is a sleeper. It's just sitting there, waiting for something to wake it up. Respect its potential as these new wind slabs bond and the new snow load balances out.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3