Watch for solar heating to weaken the snowpack Sunday with a rise in the freezing levels to follow. Surface slabs and sluffs have been serious enough in the last several days... there is significant uncertainty as to how deeper weak layers will react
Summary
Weather Forecast
Despite a stiff breeze and thin cloud Saturday, solar heating was strong. Sunday will dawn clear and winds will likely diminish: expect a significant solar shock to the snowpack. This begins a significant warming trend that will bring freezing levels to 3000m later in the week. Both size and likelihood of avalanches are expected to increase.
Snowpack Summary
15- 50cm has accumulated since March 7. Modertate to strong SW-W winds have redistributed this snow treeline and above. This snow sits over previous widespread wind effect in the alpine, suncrusts on steep S aspects and 30-50cm of sugary facets everywhere else. While a tough midpack exists in thicker areas, facets to ground are seen in many others.
Avalanche Summary
Several Natural (eg
1,
2) and human triggered eg (
1, 2) slabs have been seen over the last two days. South aspects have been the most active: increased sensitivity due to solar heating, buried crusts, and slab formation due to rapid settlement are all likely factors here. Loose wet activity also started up at around 15:00 as solar heating peaked.
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday