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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2018–Jan 1st, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Blue skies and a tricky surface slab; it is not the time to hit the big lines right now! Skiers on Bruins Ridge avoided a death fall in an avalanche they triggered yesterday by grabbing trees and holding on for their lives.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud today, with an alpine high of -13*C and light W winds. Tuesday, a slight warming with alpine highs of -6*C and light W ridge-top winds. The next storm arrives Wed, with 15-20cm of snow, moderate SW winds, and freezing levels rising to 900m. Thurs could see up to 30cm, with strong SW winds and freezing levels rising to 1300m.

Snowpack Summary

The storm started dry and light, but finished warm and heavy, producing a very touchy storm slab. Temperatures have cooled dramatically overnight, but this new slab may take more time to bond to the old snow surface. The Dec 9 and Nov 21 interfaces are down ~120-140cm, are producing hard/sudden test results, and can be triggered in shallow areas.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered sz 2.5 avalanche from Bruins Ridge nearly swept 2 skiers over cliffs into 8812 Bowl. Field teams were able to ski cut sz 0.5 surface slabs on small, unsupported features. A natural avalanche cycle continued yesterday morning with numerous avalanches to size 3 through the highway corridor. Natural activity died down in the evening.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40cm storm snow with mod SW winds and warm temps has formed a storm slab. The bond at the old snow surface is strengthening but it will still be sensitive to human triggering. The cold temp's may make it stubborn to trigger, but travel conservatively
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 9/Nov 21 persistent weak layers are down ~120cm+ and consist of surface hoar, facets, or a sun crust depending on aspect and elevation. Yesterday's Bruins Ridge avalanche likely stepped down to this layer.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3