Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
The next series of storms will get progressively warmer and windier. Danger ratings at all elevations will rise with this next pulse of weather.
Enjoy the "light-ish" powder Tuesday, it won't be so lovely Wednesday.
Weather Forecast
Things are about to get wet, wild, and warm.
Tonight: Flurries, 10cm, Alp low -7*C, mod SW winds
Tues: Snow, 10cm, Alp high -4*C, fzl rising to 1200m, mod/gusting strong SW winds
Wed: Snow, 35cm, Alp high 0*C, fzl rising to 1800m, strong SW winds
Thurs: Flurries, 15cm, Alp high -2*C, fzl 1600m, mod/gusting strong W winds
Snowpack Summary
Warming temps and moderate SW winds are forming new surface slabs with the 60cm of recent low density snow. The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.
Avalanche Summary
Explosive control produced several sz 1.5-2 soft slab avalanches, 30-40cm deep, at and below treeline today. Slabs were failing in the recent storm snow and not stepping down to deeper layers.
A field team in the Hermit area noted several small loose, dry point releases from ridge-top, as well as a small sz 1 wind slab on a moraine feature at 2200m
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slab is being built in the alpine and down into tree line. 60cm of low density snow is available for transport by the 30-45km/hr SouthWest winds. Watch for shooting cracks and hollow drum sounds as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs are in their infancy tonight and early Tues am. They will grow into much thicker, heavier beasts as the storm intensifies, precip rates increase, and the air warms.
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming slabs.
- Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2