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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2022–Jan 9th, 2022
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Strong to extreme winds overnight Saturday will likely lead to a natural avalanche cycle on Sunday. Avoid avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be mainly cloudy with strong westerly winds. A few light flurries may also fall, and there will a return to more seasonable temperatures with a high near -10C.

Avalanche Summary

A natural slab avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred on the east side of the region today with notable avalanches observed on Mt Kidd and in the Fortress area. On the west side of the region (Spray Valley / Smith-Dorrien) there were no new avalanches observed today, but this area has notably escaped the wind so far.

Snowpack Summary

A Tale of Two Valleys: In the Spray Valley as much as 80cm of recent storm snow is settling out (now averaging 60 to 70cm at treeline). There has been very little wind effect in this area.....so far. Forecasted strong westerly winds will likely change that very quickly, but as of Saturday afternoon there were no new avalanches observed. In the Kananaskis Valley (HWY 40), there has been significantly less snow and much more wind, which has caused a natural slab avalanche cycle up to size 3.

Forecasters continue to monitor the Dec crust layer down 120 to 150cm in the snowpack. This curst has faceting on both sides, and while reactive to stability tests, it has not been especially active in recent days. This may change as the wind loading is expected to start to overload this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Westerly winds are expected to increase to 80 to 120km/h overnight. Significant wind slab development is expected.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

We are uncertain as to how this layer will behave with a new load. There's certainly no way it will help! Assume it to be touchy and avoid bigger terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5