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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2021–Jan 3rd, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The storm is here and natural avalanches are running far. The hazard will increase through the day. Low elevation slabs are of concern in the usual storm skiing areas

Weather Forecast

A warm front today brings 15cm with strong SW wind and temps rising. Snowfall will increase overnight with another 20cm due as a second front passes bringing cold air and wind gusting to 80 from the SW. Sunday temperatures and freezing levels will drop significantly with scattered flurries. Another 10cm on Monday as yet another front comes through.

Snowpack Summary

A new surface hoar layer (Dec 26) is preserved, in isolated areas, under 50cm of recent snow. The Dec 13 surface hoar can still be found down 100cm and the Dec 7 crust down 120 with weaker, facetted snow between them. At the base of the snowpack are several early season crusts including the prominent Nov 5 with facets in between them.

Avalanche Summary

Several avalanches to size 3 were observed yesterday on N and S aspects. Skier triggered slabs were reported from the Asulkan valley on all aspects including a skier accidental. Numerous detections from the ADN overnight.

Confidence

on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

50cm storm slabs have formed since yesterday morning and are reported as touchy, pulling out even at low elevations yesterday afternoon. The Dec 26 surface hoar is most likely to be preserved below this slab in forest glades at treeline and below

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The additional snow load due today may be enough to trigger the early december weak layers which are now buried over 1m deep. Field tests yesterday still showed the deeper layer still has the potential for skier triggering even at its current depth.

  • Be wary of large slopes that did not previously avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4