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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2024–Jan 6th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Dogtooth, Esplanade.

Uncertainty about buried weak layers warrants conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work over the past week has been consistently triggering large avalanches on buried weak layers with the most recent occurrence on Thursday in the Esplanade.

Last weekend, a skier in the Dogtooth Range was uninjured after accidentally triggering a size 2 deep persistent slab on basal facets over a smooth rock slab.

Snowpack Summary

New snow continues to gradually accumulate 5-20 cm over old surfaces including crusts, facets and surface hoar. Beneath lies a complex snowpack with several layers of concern.

  • A layer of surface hoar is buried 40 to 70 cm deep in the Dogtooth and 60 to 90 cm deep in the Esplanade ranges. It is a concern at elevations (generally above 2000 m) where it is not bridged by a hard crust.

  • Weak basal facets characterize the lower snowpack, especially in alpine terrain.

Read this blog post for more details.

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 60 to 130 cm.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy with 5-10 cm of new snow, southwest alpine wind 30 km/h, treeline temperature -10°C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with a few centimeters of new snow, southwest alpine wind 15 km/h, treeline temperature -7°C.

Sunday

Up to 5 cm of new snow overnight then clearing to a mix of sun and cloud, southwest alpine wind 10 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud, southwest alpine wind 20 km/h, treeline temperature -9 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow is likely poorly bonded to underlying surfaces. Expect loose dry sluffing in steep terrain and thin but touchy storm slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Persistent Slabs

Buried surface hoar is likely becoming harder to trigger, however, consequences remain high if triggered, avalanches have potential to step down to deeper layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of weak facets near the ground can be triggered by large loads or even by riders in shallow rocky areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3