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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2025–Feb 27th, 2025
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Conservative terrain choices are imperative with the current snowpack conditions. Wind slabs are reactive to human triggering. Choose low angle slopes and avoid overhead hazard.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Good visibility today revealed evidence of a widespread naturally triggered slab avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 at Alpine and Treeline elevations in the past 24 to 72hrs. Forecasters observed cracking and whumpfing today indicating a snowpack ripe for human triggering. Finally, a "goat accidental" was observed on a steep south aspect at 2200m. The goat was traversing a slope and triggered a size 2 slab avalanche 10-30cm thick. There was no involvement, as the goat was observed traversing slopes adjacent to the avalanche immediately following the event.

Snowpack Summary

5cm of new snow fell in the past 24hrs. Winds have heavily scoured westerly aspects. All S, E and N aspects have wind slabs at Alpine and Treeline elevations. Forecasters observed cracking and whumpfing today with the failures noted down 50cm on average. This coincides with the persistent weak layer of the Jan 30th facet/sun crust/ dense wind slab layer. At lower elevations there is also a storm slab or "settlement slab" that overlies the Jan 30th layer. All elevations show snowpack conditions that are sensitive to human triggering. Travelling at lower elevations involves ski penetration to ground if you leave any established trail.

Weather Summary

Thursday will be a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures near -3C for the high. Winds will be extreme topping out near 130km/h from the SW. No new snow is expected. Freezing levels could climb as high as 2400m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep terrain, including convex rolls, or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs have formed over the last couple of days. The natural avalanche cycle has subsided, but human triggering is a serious concern.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Storm Slabs

Recent snow and warm temps have formed a "settlement slab" at lower elevations. This slab sits on a very thick layer of weak facets, and is prone to human triggering.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2