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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 30th, 2012–Dec 1st, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Moderate snowfall / Moderate southwest winds with strong gusts / Freezing level at 1300mSunday: Light snowfall / Light southerly winds / Freezing level @ 1200m Monday: Light to moderate snowfall / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level @ 1100m

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported from the region. We welcome all observations at [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall accumulations across the region have been highly variable; however, as of Friday some areas had over 30cm overlying a variety of surfaces that formed during last week's dry spell. These surfaces may include well-settled storm snow and surface hoar. Relevant wind data has been extremely limited; however, some information suggests that winds have been in the moderate range. Forecast snow and increased wind values on Friday night and Saturday will add some more punch to this developing storm slab. There may be a thin buried surface hoar layer down about 115 cm. As well, the November rain crust now exists over 125cm down in some locations and may exist in combination with facets. These layers seem to have been unreactive in recent days, but may have the potential to 'wake-up' with additional loading.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 140cm and 170cm.Snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. In short, digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.