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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2017–Jan 13th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Changing winds have built fresh wind slabs on a variety of aspects and may be reactive to rider triggering.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

The dominating arctic ridge is slowly breaking down as we transition to a more zonal (westerly) flow. Cloudy with some sunny periods, light-moderate westerly winds and warmer alpine temperatures will persist through the weekend. A more significant change to come early next week.Friday/ Saturday/ Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with mostly cloudy skies on Saturday. Ridetop winds will be light from the SW-W and alpine temperatures near -9.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, numerous natural and skier triggered loose dry avalanches up to size 2 were reported from the region. Variability in the winds has been the name of the game and wind slabs may be found on all aspects at upper elevations. Persistent slab avalanches also remain an ongoing concern, creating a low probably, high consequence problem for the region. Extra caution is recommended in shallow snowpack areas.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of recent snow has buried a variety of old snow surfaces which consist of heavily wind scoured snow and wind slabs, surface hoar in sheltered areas, and/or widespread faceted old snow. Recent moderate winds from a variety of directions is expected to have redistributed some of this new snow on leeward slopes. The mid pack appears to be quite variable throughout the region and the structure is dependant on snow depth. In deeper snowpack areas, the snowpack appears to be well settled and right side up with isolated concerns for the mid-December weak layer. In shallow snowpack areas and lower elevations, the snowpack is heavily faceted and there are concerns for the mid-December weak facet layer as well as weak basal facets. Due to inconsistencies in snowpack structure region wide, its a good idea to dig down and test weak layers in your local riding area.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.