Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A western flow will bring a series of lows into our region starting on Thursday night. Moderate precipitation will result with mixed snow and rain into the weekend. There will be a gradual cooling trend that seems to peak on Sunday.Thursday overnight: Light to moderate snowfall/rain overnight / Light southwest winds / Freezing levels 1800mFriday: Light to moderate snowfall/rain / moderate southwest winds / Freezing levels up to 2000m during the afternoon.Saturday: Light precipitation / light to moderate south west winds / Freezing levels up to 2000m during the daySunday: Light to moderate precipitation possible / light easterly winds / Freezing levels dropping to 1600m during the day and 900m overnight
Avalanche Summary
A natural size 2.5 wet slab out of the alpine occurred sometime in the last 24 hours on a south facing shoulder of Mt Hosmer. A size 2.5 glide release, 50 meters wide and to ground was reported in the nearby Lizard Range on a steep east facing slope on Wednesday.Earlier in the week, numerous wet slab avalanches and glide crack releases to size 3 were observed from South to West aspects.
Snowpack Summary
The classic melt freeze cycle has come to an end with cloud and warm temps preventing a good refreeze in most of the forecast region. Along with the solar aspects, previously dry north facing zones in the alpine are also now moist. A buried rain crust can be found down 25-50 cm and exists up to around 2100 m. Larger triggers such as a loose wet slide, or cornice fall may cause this layer to fail.Snow is isothermal on south facing aspects in the alpine/treeline and on all aspects below treeline.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.