Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2025–Jan 1st, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

New snow and wind are impacting a buried weak layer in the region.

Be cautious in steep or wind-affected terrain and anywhere with overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

On December 30,

A large (Size 2.5) remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Bullmoose riding area, near Tumbler Ridge. See the MIN for more details
A widespread natural avalanche cycle was reported in the Tumbler Ridge area, with avalanches up to size 2.5 on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

A broad range of new snow amounts are present through the region, with isolated areas (around Pine Pass) getting up to 40 cm of snow. This snow will be redistributed into deeper deposits in alpine at treeline terrain by strong southwest wind.

A prominent crust which has caused a natural avalanche cycle on Tuesday formed in mid-December, is now buried 60 to 100 cm deep. This crust extends up to 1800 m near the Pine Pass area.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Cloudy. up to 4 cm of snow. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 600 m.

Thursday
Cloudy. 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C. Freezing level 500 m.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. Up to 4 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -16 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind-exposed terrain.
Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.