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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2023–Feb 20th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Coquihalla, Harrison-Fraser, Manning, Skagit.

A period of heavy snowfall and strong winds is imminent over the coming 48-hour period. Avalanche danger ratings are certain to rise, and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended during periods of high hazard.

Avalanches are likely to be triggered by light loads such as skiers in wind-loaded areas at all elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday A few small (size 1) windslabs were reported that were initiated with ski cut testing on small steep slopes, depths estimated at 40 cm.

On Thursday, A large (size 2.5) avalanche was observed during a helicopter observation flight. This naturally trigger slab avalanche was approximately 80 to 100 cm deep. It initiated at the ridgetop, 2000 m elevation, running 250m in length. This very steep and rocky terrain feature was on a northeast aspect and it is suspected that the avalanche ran on a crust formed mid-January. Noted large (size 2) glide slab activity was confined to steep south aspect rock faces between 1600 and 1800 m elevation.

Please continue to post your reports and photos to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Southwest winds continue redistributing 20 to 35 cm of available snow into lee features at higher elevations. On steep solar surfaces, you will find a thin melt-freeze crust. In sheltered areas, 20 to 30 cm of recent storm snow remains unconsolidated, this overlies an additional 50 cm of past HST that has settled and is well bonded.

A melt-freeze crust formed in mid-January is now buried up to 80-120 cm deep. At the moment this layer appears to be gaining strength but remains a concern. In isolated areas, small facets are still found above the crust. The snow below this layer is consolidating nicely. Buried 120-150 cm is a crust, formed near the end of December.

Snowpack depths are just below seasonal averages. Total amounts range from 150 to 300 cm at treeline, but decrease significantly below 1500 m.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with continued moderate to heavy snowfall, 10 to 35 cm of accumulation. Winds southwest 50 km/h gusting to 70 km/h. Treeline temperatures -2 °C and freezing levels of 1000 m. 

Monday

Cloudy with moderate to heavy snowfall beginning in the late afternoon, 10 to 30 cm accumulation. Winds west 60 km/h gusting 80 km/h. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with continued light to moderate snowfall, 5 to 10 cm of accumulation. Winds west 40 km/h easing to 10 km/h. Treeline temperatures -6 °C and freezing levels of 600 m. 

Wednesday

Clearing with no forecast precipitation. Winds east 20 km/h. Treeline temperatures -9 °C and freezing levels 0 m. 

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Avoid areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.