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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2021–Mar 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Rising freezing levels will stress our pre existing wind slab problem and create potential for wet loose avalanches later in the week.

Keep in mind that a persistent slab lurks deep in the snowpack and give cornices a wide berth as things warm up.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated showers. 5cm of snow at Cameron Lake with Rain in the townsite.  Moderate SW wind with 70km/h gusts.

Wednesday:  Sunny with cloudy periods. Freezing level rising to 2100m. Moderate SW wind with strong gusts.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Freezing level 2200m. Light to Moderate SW wind with 60km/h gusts.

Snowpack Summary

Strong SW wind has caused significant cornice growth and added to surface wind slab. 20-50cm wind slab sits on top of the weak February 14 facet layer which is above a melt freeze crust at treeline and below. The remainder of the midpack is made up of dense facets and decomposing crusts, with early season ice crusts forming the base.

Avalanche Summary

A natural size 1.5 wind slab avalanche was noted on a SE aspect at 1900m on the Akamina Parkway. We estimate this avalanche occurred over the weekend when visibility was poor.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.