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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2020–Jan 29th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Avalanche danger will increase through the day Wednesday as 35-45 cm of new snow and strong winds form reactive storm slabs at upper elevations.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Flurries bringing a trace of new snow. Light south winds. Freezing level 1300 m.

Wednesday: 35-45 cm of new snow with rain below 900 m. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday: 10-15 cm of new snow. Southwest winds building to strong. Freezing level 1900 m.

Friday: Broken cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level 2500 m. Storm totals for Friday night/Saturday are looking to be in the range of of 50-80 mm of rain. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations since Saturday when small pockets of loose wet snow (less than size 1) were reactive to skier traffic. 

Snowpack Summary

35-45 cm of new snow will fall over the day above 1000 m. Dry snow at upper elevations will be redistributed by strong southwest wind. A rain crust up to 1400 m sits 30-60 cm below the surface, elevation dependent. The snowpack is strong and settled from earlier rain, and now 200-300 cm deep around the peaks of the north shore mountains. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.