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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 6th, 2025–Mar 7th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

Stick to mellow, simple terrain.

Avoid terrain that is being visibly wind loaded and don't linger on or under steep, sunny slopes.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wed: Explosives avalanche control produced numerous small to large (up to size 2) storm slab avalanches in north through east facing alpine terrain. Similar naturally triggered avalanches were also reported. Additionally, our field team reported numerous small dry loose avalanches out of steep slopes facing the sun.

Looking forward: Avalanches on buried weak layers may be difficult to trigger, but if one is triggered, it is likely to be large and destructive.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of recent snow is settling on a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists on all sun-affected slopes, and as high as 1700 m on shaded slopes.

A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm. This weak layer remains a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust under the recent snow.

The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Clear. 10 to 15 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. Treeline low -7 °C.

Friday

Sunny. 15 to 25 km/h west or southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1700 m through the day. Treeline high -1 °C.

Saturday

Partly cloudy. 25 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom overnight, rising to 1800 m through the day.

Sunday

Partly cloudy. 25 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1900 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.