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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2025–Mar 17th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Bull.

Stick to simple or non-avalanche terrain while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Avoid overhead hazard especially during periods of sun.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Over the last three days, explosive control in the Lizard Range has produced numerous storm slabs up to size 2 (large). Last Thursday, a widespread natural cycle was observed in the Lizard Range with storm slabs up to size 2.5, and explosive control also produced numerous small storm slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of recent snow has built widespread storm slabs in the region, with another 5 to 15 expected overnight Sunday. Due to southwesterly winds, slabs are expected to be especially reactive on lee north through east facing slopes near ridgetops. In most areas, the storm snow rests on a melt-freeze crust, except for high elevation north and east facing slopes.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 100 to 150 cm. This layer triggered large avalanches earlier in March. The greatest concern for this weak layer is on upper-elevation northerly and easterly slopes. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, with a few sunny breaks. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level rising to 1400 m.

Wednesday

Sunny. 25 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.