Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2023–Jan 5th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heightened avalanche conditions are expected during periods of heavy rain on Thursday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche activity has been reported since last week. The incoming storm will likely produce small wet loose avalanches at all elevations and potentially form winds slabs at the highest elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Rain will soak the snowpack at most elevations the next few days, but accumulations of wet heavy snow will be possible above 1000 m. Initial accumulations of new snow on Thursday morning could be poorly bonded to freshly buried surface hoar or the 20 to 30 cm deep crust layer. Snowpack depths at treeline are roughly 100 cm, while most below treeline terrain is below the threshold depth for avalanches, except for isolated smooth features.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

A low pressure system arrives around midnight bringing 5 to 10 mm of precipitation to most of the island with localized accumulations of 20 mm possible in the mid-island. Freezing level will remain around 800 m with treeline temperatures around -2 °C. 50 to 80 km/h wind from the southeast.

Thursday

Precipitation continues throughout the day with another 15 to 25 mm expected as freezing levels gradually climb to 1800 m. Treeline elevations will see snow turn to rain in the morning. 60 to 90 km/h wind from the southeast throughout the day.

Friday

Stormy weather continues with another 20 to 40 mm of mixed precipitation types as freezing levels hover around 1200 m. 60 to 80 km/h wind from the southeast.

Saturday

Stormy weather with 15 to 30 mm of precipitation, freezing level around 1000 m, 50 to 60 km/h wind from the south.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.