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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2023–Jan 2nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Human triggering of large, persistent slab avalanches remains possible. Continue to stay disciplined and make conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Daily reports continue to come in of very large natural and human-triggered slab avalanches (size 2 to 3) failing on persistent weak layers deep in the snowpack. Along with smaller avalanches on the surface stepping down to deeper layers. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

This recent Mountain Conditions Report submission paints a spooky picture of the current state of the snowpack.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 50 to 70 cm of new snow continues to settle and bond over a weak layer buried just before Christmas. This layer consists of sugary faceted grains and/or small surface hoar and has been responsible for numerous large natural and human-triggered avalanches since December 27.

The mid and lower snowpack generally remains weak and facetted, with a number of weak layers present. A layer of particular concern that was buried in November, consists of weak facets, surface hoar, and/or a thin crust, and is roughly 100 to 150 cm down from the surface.

Snowpack depths are roughly 150 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Mainly cloudy, with no precipitation. Light southwest winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light southwest winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline. Potential for a strong temperature inversion in the alpine.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light southwest winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline. Potential for a strong temperature inversion in the alpine.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy, with flurries. Light southerly winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.