Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, Blue River, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk.

Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Human triggered avalanches are possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Over the past three days, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred and numerous (size 2-4) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches were seen from all aspects and elevations. Yesterday, a skier remotely triggered (from 50 m away) a size 4 persistent slab avalanche.

Until colder temperatures arrive and stabilize the snowpack, rider-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large avalanches have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

In the high alpine isolated pockets of wind-transported dry snow exists. A thin, breakable crust exists above 2300 m with moist snow under the crust. Wet, saturated snow 2200 m and below.

The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has been actively producing avalanches failing down to the early and mid January crust/facet layer (30-80 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down) which remains a concern above 2000 m in shallow snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is characterized by weak basal facets in many areas.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -1°C, south alpine wind 20 gusting to 45 km/h, freezing level around 1700 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries up to 3-7 cm, southwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, freezing level around 1600 m.

Friday

Cloudy with light snow, treeline temperatures near -2°C, southerly alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing levels near 1600 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -4°C, southwest alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.