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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2024–Jan 28th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, Clearwater, Quesnel, South Okanagan, Shuswap, North Okanagan.

Above-zero temperatures and rain destabilize the upper snowpack. Stick to conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week, we've seen numerous avalanches on the mid January facet layer detailed in the snowpack summary. Most recent activity has been rider or explosive triggered in wind-loaded terrain features, up to size 2.5. This activity is expected to continue with additional snow/rain load this weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation moistens surfaces as the freezing level creeps up the mountain.

A layer of facets formed during the mid January cold snap sits 30-50 cm deep. This layer has been actively producing avalanches and is expected to continue as it is stressed by the new load.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong and well bonded.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

5-10 cm of mixed precip. South alpine wind 20-40 km/h. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Sunday

5-10 mm of mixed precip, local enhancements of up to 15 mm possible, ending midday. South alpine wind 20-30 km/h. Treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing level 2200 m.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud. South alpine wind 40-60 km/h. Treeline temperature +3 °C. Freezing level 2500 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with flurries bringing around 5 cm of new snow. South alpine wind 40-60 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.