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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2020–Dec 23rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

An alpine warm-up may stress the snowpack and increase the likelihood of human triggering.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, 20 to 30 km/h northwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 20 to 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1600 m.

THURSDAY: Clear skies, 20 to 30 km/h south wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2200 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 10 to 30 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous wind slab avalanches were triggered naturally and by riders on Tuesday. The occurred on southerly aspects due to recent north wind. They most occurred at alpine and treeline elevations.

The latest observed avalanche on the weak layers described in the snowpack summary occurred on December 19, where a few large avalanches were triggered by riders and explosives. They occurred on northerly aspect in alpine terrain (2100 m) and were generally 30 to 50 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may linger at treeline and alpine elevations on all aspects due to wind starting from the south and shifting to the north. These strong winds mean that variable conditions and snow depths will be found in alpine terrain. In sheltered terrain, numerous storm snow interfaces may be found in the top 50 cm of the snowpack, which may take a bit of time to bond.

Two concerning weak layers are present in the snowpack. The shallower layer, being around 50 to 80 cm deep, includes feathery surface hoar crystals. This layer may be found in sheltered terrain features at treeline and lower alpine elevations. The more widespread weak layer includes sugary faceted grains that overlies a hard melt-freeze crust. This layer ranges in depth from 10 cm to 100 cm due to wind effect. The layer has been reported as being widespread up to around 2000 to 2200 m. 

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.