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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2022–Jan 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Yukon.

Limited field observations mean uncertainty is high. 

Choose conservative terrain as we assess the snowpack after several weeks of prolonged cold temperatures and a significant amount of new snow and wind. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Sunday Overnight: Snowfall easing. Strong southerly winds. Alpine temperatures rise to -10 C.

Monday: Snowing, up to 5 cm accumulation. Moderate to strong southerly winds. Alpine temperatures around -10 C.

Tuesday: Light snowfall. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -8 C.

Wednesday: Partially cloudy, light flurries. Alpine temperatures around -12 C. Light southerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Last week, a natural avalanche cycle occurred in White Pass. This was a result of sustained north winds redistributing the 30-40cm of New Years Eve storm snow. This MIN from Wednesday describes widespread size 2 avalanches, running well into treeline. Avalanches also occurred further inland along the highway corridor on January 4.

Snowpack Summary

Yesterday's 10-30 cm of new snow will continue to be redeposited by strong southerly winds into fresh wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. These new wind slabs overlie a heavily wind-affected surface of old harder wind slabs and sastrugi. The new snow will probably bond poorly to the old hard surface and human triggering might remain likely. 

Below the new snow, many days of northerly outflow winds last week formed thick, hard slabs, that overlie a weak faceted (sugary) surface. These older hard slabs will probably be stubborn or unreactive to human triggering, but with limited observations in the past week, we would be treating them with caution. 

Terrain and Travel

  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.