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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2021–Dec 26th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

What more could we want than a beautiful, sunny boxing day with chilly temps to help keep the new snow dry and fluffy? For you to share your day with us on the Mountain Information Network, of course!

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Clearing. No new snow. Light variable wind. Treeline high temperatures near -12 C.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light northwest wind. Treeline temperatures dropping to -17 C.

Monday: Increasing cloud. Wind increasing to strong northwest. Treeline temperatures around -13 C.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Strong northwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -13 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity on Thursday and Friday was predominantly small loose dry, size 1-1.5, observed out of steep terrain at treeline. On Thursday, evidence of natural storm slab avalanches size 2-2.5 were observed out of north facing alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Recent low density snow has seen some redistribution at upper elevations, forming deep, soft deposits in leeward terrain features. 15-30 cm now sits over a freezing rain crust below 1500 m and above this elevation it may rest on a layer of large surface hoar crystals. Our field team reported easy shears on this layer in their MIN report from during the storm on Wednesday. You can see photos of the surface hoar prior to being buried by the storm in these MIN reports from Elk Mountain on Monday and Mt Kitchener on Tuesday.

A crust-facet sandwich formed in early December can now be found a meter deep. These layers show limited reactivity and are well bridged by strong snowpack layers above them. Below, the snowpack is generally well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.