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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Travelling conditions are challenging ; from thin breakable crust to thick supportive crust. Adjust your plan and objective to stay safe.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, strong west wind, treeline high around -3 C, freezing level around 1600 m.

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, moderate west wind increasing to extreme, treeline high around -6 C,freezing level at valley bottom rising to 1000 m by midday.

MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, treeline high around -3 C, strong southwest wind, freezing level around 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Snow, 5-10 cm, light to moderate variable winds, treeline high around -8 C, freezing level returning to valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed nor reported in the last 24 hours.

Thursday, three very large avalanches were reported from this region. The avalanches appear to have failed on the early December crust and showed wide propagation. They occurred on southwest to southeast aspects and were naturally triggered in response to rising temperatures and solar radiation.These avalanches follow a previous sporadic pattern of very large avalanches that have been reported from this region and neighbouring regions over the last couple of weeks. 

Snowpack Summary

Fresh dry snow is potentially found at upper elevation. Around 2000 m and below, a crust is now capping the dense 15 cm of snow which is continuing to settle with the mild temperatures. The crust varies from thin/breakable to thick/supportive, according to the aspects and elevation. Under it, the snowpack consists of a variety of old surfaces, including soft snow in sheltered areas and wind slabs in exposed and open areas, which formed over the past few days.

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now down 100-270 cm. This layer appeared to have "waken up" in response to warm temperatures and solar radiation on Thursday Jan 13, when at least three very large avalanches were reported on this layer. This layer has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.