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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2021–Dec 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Cold dry weather continues. Wind slab avalanches will be possible to trigger on steep open slopes.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

Cold arctic air sits over the region with little change in weather conditions over the next few days.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a trace of snow, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures around -15 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, light wind from the north, treeline temperatures around -15 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, light wind from the north, treeline temperatures around -12 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, light flurries with 5 cm of low density snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

Some small avalanches were reported on the North Shore mountains over the weekend. These include a few size 1 skier triggered slabs on convex rolls in the Seymour backcountry (see photos in the MIN reports here and here) and some loose dry avalanches in the top 10 cm of low density snow.

Similar avalanche activity can be expected in the upcoming days, although there will be potential for larger slabs at upper elevations if the wind increases and begins to transport snow.

Snowpack Summary

Cold weather has left 20-40 cm of low density snow on the surface. There is potential for northerly winds to begin transporting this snow into wind slabs, perhaps in unusual cross-loading or reverse-loading patterns. This low density snow sits above a mostly settled and bonded snowpack with a few crusts in the top 100 cm.

In the north of the region, a concerning layer of facets (sugary snow) can be found down 100-200 cm over a crust that formed in early December. This layer is transitioning from stubborn to unreactive as the settling snow above makes it harder to trigger. This problem is particularly hard to predict and tricky to manage. Get more details and photos in our forecaster blog.

For a more detailed description of snowpack layers, watch the snowpack summary video produced by North Shore Rescue on Dec 24.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.