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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2022–Jan 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Check for wind effect before committing to a big line. Isolated pockets of wind slab around ridgelines and in extreme terrain may react to a human trigger.

Continue to practice good travel habits while danger is low. An incoming storm will raise danger ratings for Sunday.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Finally we see a return of an active weather pattern with cooler temperatures and moderate snowfall on Sunday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud cover, with moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels around 800 m. Isolated flurries possible. 

SATURDAY: Cloudy, with moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels below 1000 m. Alpine high of -2. Scattered flurries possible. 

SUNDAY: Snowfall begins Saturday evening, delivering around 10cm by Sunday morning, and an additional 10-30 cm by Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels remain below 1000 m. Winds remain strong from the southwest.

MONDAY: Possible flurries with mostly cloudy skies. Moderate westerly winds. Alpine high of -8. Freezing levels sit below 800 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Explosive control work near Whistler on Tuesday produced a cornice fall that triggered a size 2.5 deep persistent slab on the weak facetted crystals above the early December crust. The slab was triggered mid slope, 60-130cm deep. This indicates that while the weak layer is unlikely to be affected by skiers and riders, it is still triggerable by very large loads. 

Snowpack Summary

A thick melt freeze crust sits on the surface on all aspects up to approximately 2300 m. Sunny alpine slopes may have a thin melt freeze crust on the surface, from solar affect.

High alpine elevations still hold pockets of dry snow. Moderate winds have redistributed this into wind slabs on north through east facing slopes.

The early December crust/facet layer can be found around 100-200 cm deep, most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. This layer showed no reactivity from the warming event last weekend and is currently classified as dormant. Large loads may still be able to trigger avalanches on this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.