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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2026–Mar 1st, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard.

It's a challenging snowpack.

Strong winds have left slabs in open features, while persistent slab avalanches are most likely in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We have higher uncertainty about treeline conditions due to persistent slabs.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, riders encountered extreme winds, whumpfing and shooting cracks extending up to 200 m into lower-angle terrain. Snowpack tests found surface hoar buried 40-60 cm, and easily produced reactive results.

On Thursday, riders triggered a size 1.5 persistent slab on a steep slope from a treed ridge; the crown was 50 cm thick.

Since last weekend, natural, remote, and rider-triggered persistent slab avalanches up to size 3 have failed on all aspects and elevations.

Snowpack Summary

20 cm of recent snow and strong winds produced a variety of pressed surfaces, slabs, and sastrugi in open terrain at all elevations. Steep south slopes may have a thin sun crust.

Within the top 80-120 cm of the snowpack, there are multiple concerning weak layers of surface hoar and/or crusts/facets. The majority of recent persistent slab avalanches have been on well-preserved surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

The mid and lower snowpack are well settled.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Clear skies. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Monday

Sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and clouds. 3 to 5 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Keep your guard up at all elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive and could extend into openings below treeline.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.
  • Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.