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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2023–Mar 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Assess for wind slab as you gain elevation. Previous southeasterly winds have formed wind slabs on lee features in the alpine which may be reactive to human triggers.

Minimize time travelling on slopes below cornices. In shallow snowpack areas a cornice fall could trigger a deep persistent slab avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A cornice triggered size 1.5 wind slab avalanche was reported on a northwest aspect in the alpine in the Duffey zone on Tuesday. No significant avalanches were reported in the past couple days.

Snowpack Summary

A new sun crust exists on or near the surface on solar aspects. Wind slabs could still be found near ridge crests in the alpine. These slabs sit on a variety of surfaces including sun crusts, facets, and previous wind effect. These recent winds have also formed large cornices. Around 20 cm of soft snow can be found in sheltered terrain.

The mid-snowpack is well consolidated.

This is not the case for the lower snowpack. There is a widespread weak layer of large sugary facets at the bottom of the snowpack. Recent avalanche activity on this layer has been confined to northern parts of the region in the Chilcotins. This layer remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with a few centimeters of new snow possible. Light southwest winds and a low of -8°C at 1800 m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with light flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light southerly winds and a high of -5°C at 1800 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with around 5 cm of new snow expected. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -4°C at 1800 m with freezing levels rising to 1200 m.

Monday

Stormy with up to 20 cm of new snow expected. Moderate to strong southeast winds and a high of -4°C at 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Minimize your exposure time below cornices.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.