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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2023–Mar 14th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Expect storm slabs to remain reactive for the time being.

Use conservative decision-making if you notice signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Although the time or occurrence is unknown, a natural large size three, wind slab avalanche was observed on Sunday. It started in a cross-loaded feature in the alpine and it may have stepped down to weaker buried layers.

On Saturday there were reports of two wind slab avalanches. One was triggered by a rider and the other one went naturally. These occurred in the alpine on north to northeast aspects and at a depth of 20 to 25 cm.

Snowpack Summary

Since Friday snowfall amounts have totaled to approximately 50 cm. Much of this has been redistributed into wind slabs at treeline and above. It has also built upon the large cornices that have already formed. A sun crust may exist below this new snow on steep solar aspects. In sheltered areas, this new snow will rest on various amounts of low-density snow that fell earlier in the week.

The mid-snowpack is well consolidated.

This is not the case for the lower snowpack. There is a widespread weak layer of large sugary facets at the bottom of the snowpack. Recent avalanche activity on this layer has been confined to northern parts of the region in the Chilcotins. This layer remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with some clear periods, 2 cm accumulation, winds southwest 15 to 25 km/h gusting to 55, treeline temperatures -8 °C with freezing levels falling back to the valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, up to 8 cm accumulation to the west, winds southwest 15 to 20 km/h gusting to 40, treeline temperatures -10 to -5 °C with freezing levels reaching 1000 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud, trace accumulation, winds southwest 10 to 15 km/h, treeline temperatures around -5 °C with freezing levels to 1300 m.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, no accumulation, winds southeast 10 km/h, treeline temperatures around -5 °C with freezing levels rising to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.