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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2021–Jan 18th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

As you gain elevation, carefully monitor how new snow is bonding to the crust. Storm slabs may become increasingly reactive with rising temperatures and sunshine. The underlying crust offers a slick bed surface for snow (and people) to slide far and fast.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Clearing, light to moderate northerly ridgetop wind, freezing level 800 m.

Monday: Sunny, light northerly ridgetop wind, freezing level 1600 m.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud with evening flurries developing, westerly ridgetop wind building to strong, freezing level 2300 m dropping to 700 m.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, light variable ridgetop wind, freezing level 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Glide cracks were observed to be opening up during the wet storm earlier in the week.

Snowpack Summary

Above 1200 m, around 10 cm of new snow sits on a thick block of icy rain crust which may be bridging a weaker layer of dry, sugary faceted snow. Affecting this weak snow through the thick crust would be difficult and avalanches on it are unlikely but not impossible in unsupported terrain. Below, the snowpack is a multi tiered sandwich of crusts and moist snow and is well consolidated.

Watch North Shore Rescue's weekly snowpack conditions update from Friday here.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Brief periods of sun could quickly initiate natural avalanche activity.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.