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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2021–Jan 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Hwy 93 will be closed 1700hrs January 12 Atha Falls to Sask Crossing with tentative opening January 14 late morning.

Be mindful of overhead exposure and terrain choice as we are expecting a descent avalanche cycle in the next couple days.

Weather Forecast

A strong warm frontal system will bring moderate to heavy precipitation overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday (up to 40cm).  Southerly winds will increase to moderate and strong values.  The freezing level will rise up to 1600m overnight Tuesday falling to valley bottom mid day Wednesday.  A clearing trend will follow.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of snow is forecast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday accompanied by moderate to strong southerly winds.  The freezing level may reach 1600m; rain is likely at lower elevations.  The new snow will fall upon a supportive mid pack except regions with a shallow snowpack like the Maligne range. Basal snowpack is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported; no patrol today.

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Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.