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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2022–Mar 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A fast moving front is forecast to affect our area mid afternoon on Saturday.

It might be a good day to plan on getting an early start and getting back to low consequence terrain (or better yet the parking lot) before the storm arrives.

Weather Forecast

Another pulse of snow will arrive Saturday afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated flurries, Alpine low -6*C, moderate S ridgetop wind

Sat: Snow (12cm - rain at lower elevations?), high -3*C, freezing level (FZL) 1700m, mod SW wind

Sun: Clear periods, low -12*C, high -9*C, FZL 1000m, mod SW wind

Mon: Flurries (5cm), low -9*C, high -6*C, FZL 1500m, mod SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow adds to the 45-70cm of settled snow received since Mar 11th. Solar aspects treeline and below have a series of buried suncrusts (the most recent - Mar 11th and 7th - may sandwich weak/facetted snow between them). On shaded aspects, spotty small surface hoar may be buried down ~70cm (March 7), down 90cm (Feb 26), and >1m (Feb 15).

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, there was a report of a skier involvement in a size 2 slab avalanche in steep terrain in Puff Daddy, and several size 1 slabs in Ursus trees and Rogers Run - all failing on the Mar 11th suncrust.

On Thursday, a group at the top of Rogers run triggered a size 2 slab avalanche (Mar 11th Suncrust) that nearly hit a group below.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.