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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Still stormy!

Heavy rain and snow overnight will continue to keep avalanche danger elevated. Even as snowfall rates taper on Tuesday, the snowpack will need time to adjust to the new load. 

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended and stay clear of runout zones.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Heavy precipitation continues overnight with 20-40 mm with strong southwest wind. Freezing levels rise to approximately 2000 m, treeline temps could reach +3.

Tuesday: Snowfall easing during the day, 5-15 cm possible, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing levels hovering around 1800-2000 m, treeline highs of +3.

Tuesday night into Wednesday: Light snowfall, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing levels dropping to around 1700 m.

Thursday: Trace of new snow, wind light and variable, freezing levels between 1500-1700 m

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered size 2 storm slab avalanches were reported in the region on Monday. Explosives control yielded storm slab results up to size 2.5.

On Sunday there were reports of small accidentally triggered wind slabs.

Snowpack Summary

By Tuesday morning there could be over 60 cm (depending on your location in the region) of new snow forming touchy slabs over a variety of old surfaces like old wind affected snow, sun crusts, and cold weak crystals on shaded aspects. Rain will likely soak new snow overnight on Monday night at treeline and below treeline elevations.

An interface from mid-February is also on the radar. Facets over old wind-pressed snow and sun crusts, as well as spotty surface hoar crystals have been slow to heal. This layer was previously only reactive in wind-loaded terrain where a slab had formed but may become more widespread if covered with a more cohesive slab on all aspects due to recent storm snow.

Two layers of buried surface hoar from January are likely now down over a meter deep. Most recently, this surface hoar was most reactive in sheltered areas around treeline in the east of the region and appeared to be dormant through the rest of the region. As the storm progresses and more load is added to the snowpack, this surface hoar will get tested and avalanches have the potential to step down to these deeper layers. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.