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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Heavy snowfall, warm temperatures, and wind are expected to build reactive storm slabs which may overlie a weak layer of surface hoar, facetted snow, or a slick crust.

Choose low-consequence and well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

A series of frontal systems impacting the coast will bring continued snowfall throughout the week.

Monday Overnight: Overcast to obscured skies, with rain at lower elevations and snowfall above ~1400 m, 10-20 cm of accumulation. Moderate to strong southwest winds at ridgetop. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Tuesday: Continued snowfall above ~1500 m, 5-15 cm of accumulation, rain at lower elevations. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with some with light precipitation, 0-5 cm of new snow accumulation above 1200 m. Light to moderate westerly winds. Freezing level around 1300 m.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with light precipitation, 0-5 cm of new snow accumulation above 1300 m. Light to moderate westerly winds. Freezing level around 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and skier-triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported over the weekend. The storm slabs were most reactive were they were sitting on a sun crust or a weak layer of surface hoar.

Riders may get surprised by widely propagating storm slabs that are sitting on a weak layer of facets/crust or surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

20-60 cm of recent snow and moderate southwest winds have formed fresh storm slabs that are expected to be most reactive in wind-affected terrain; especially where slabs are sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar or a sun crust.

The recent new snow is sitting on various surfaces, including hard wind-affected snow, sun crusts on southerly slopes, and surface hoar on shady or sheltered slopes. 

The late February persistent weak layer combination of crust, facets and surface hoar is down 30-40 cm. Reports suggest this layer is not a problem in most areas.

Two persistent weak layers from mid-February and late January are buried 50-120cm deep. No recent avalanches have been reported on these layers.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.