Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Apr 1 – 2, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow and strong wind bring danger up to Moderate. Snowfall is expected to be variable across the region. If you are finding less than 5 cm of new snow, yesterday's forecast is more applicable. If you are finding more than 20 cm of new snow, increase danger to Considerable.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2

    5-15 cm of new snow may fall through the day on Saturday. This new snow may not stick well on the hard crust underneath. Moderate to strong southwest wind could form deeper pockets of more reactive slab in lee features.

    • Watch for signs of instability like shooting cracks and recent avalanches.
    • Use extra caution near ridgetops and on convex rolls. 
    • Use small test slopes to see how the storm snow is bonding to the old surface.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Freezing levels will rise a little as precipitation picks up on Saturday. Rain at lower elevations may loosen the previously frozen surface, and just below treeline, rain may start soaking snow that has just fallen, increasing the chance of loose wet avalanches. 

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Scattered cloud. Very light snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to around 800 m.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Possibly more on the west side of the island. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong by the afternoon. Freezing level rising to 1100 m through the day.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, with potential sun in the afternoon. Variable precipitation amounts across the region, mostly 10-20 cm. Up to 50 cm on the west side of the island (eg. 5040 peak), and as little as 5 cm on the east side (Mt. Washington). Strong winds overnight easing off to light southwest. Freezing level around 1100 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Variable precipitation amounts across the region, mostly 15-25 cm. Up to 50 cm on the west side of the island (eg. 5040 peak), and as little as 5 cm on the east side (Mt. Washington). Strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday before 4pm.

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Snowpack Summary

By the end of the day on Saturday, there may be as much as 15 cm of new snow covering a supportive melt freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will likely be creating deeper pockets of windslab in lee features. The freezing level will rise through the day, wetting the below treeline snow surface with rain. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Consider sticking to simple terrain when cold snow is affected by rain or sees direct solar radiation for the first time.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

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