Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 1st, 2022–Apr 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

New snow and strong wind bring danger up to Moderate. Snowfall is expected to be variable across the region. If you are finding less than 5 cm of new snow, yesterday's forecast is more applicable. If you are finding more than 20 cm of new snow, increase danger to Considerable.

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Scattered cloud. Very light snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to around 800 m.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Possibly more on the west side of the island. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong by the afternoon. Freezing level rising to 1100 m through the day.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, with potential sun in the afternoon. Variable precipitation amounts across the region, mostly 10-20 cm. Up to 50 cm on the west side of the island (eg. 5040 peak), and as little as 5 cm on the east side (Mt. Washington). Strong winds overnight easing off to light southwest. Freezing level around 1100 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Variable precipitation amounts across the region, mostly 15-25 cm. Up to 50 cm on the west side of the island (eg. 5040 peak), and as little as 5 cm on the east side (Mt. Washington). Strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday before 4pm.

If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions, avalanche observations, or even just funny stories to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network.  

Snowpack Summary

By the end of the day on Saturday, there may be as much as 15 cm of new snow covering a supportive melt freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will likely be creating deeper pockets of windslab in lee features. The freezing level will rise through the day, wetting the below treeline snow surface with rain. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Consider sticking to simple terrain when cold snow is affected by rain or sees direct solar radiation for the first time.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.