Although temperatures have cooled slightly, human triggered loose wet avalanches remain a concern on Monday, especially at mid and lower elevations where the snowpack remains weak, warm and mushy.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool(ish), at least through Wednesday morning.SUNDAY NIGHT: Gentle southeast breeze, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southeast wind, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1500 m Monday night, further lowering to about 1000 m by dawn with 8 to 15 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower/mid elevations and could produce as much as 10 to 15 cm of snow at upper elevations.TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, moderate southwest wind, freezing level holding around 1200 m, 4 to 8 cm of snow possible.WEDNESDAY: Clear skies, light southeast wind, freezing level rising to about 2000 m, no significant precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported recently. The lack of avalanche observations is probably linked to a slight cooling trend and the fact that the riding quality is poor in most locations.
Snowpack Summary
Snow surfaces are variable and the heat has likely eliminated any trace of cold snow except on high elevation north features. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt than freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations. The current surface continues to produce snowballing, surface sluffing and loose wet avalanches.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. There have been no recent reports of avalanches nor activity on this layer in snowpack tests. The recent warm temperatures have probably helped this layer to heal significantly, the one place where it may still be a concern is high elevation north facing terrain.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.