Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2019–Mar 17th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

The heat is on and the game is changing. Direct sun and steadily warming temperatures are expected to destabilize the upper 10 to 40 cm of snow and a natural avalanche cycle is possible. Look up and avoid travel under avalanche paths and cornices.

Confidence

Low -

Weather Forecast

The first big warm up of the season really begins to flex on Sunday. Say goodbye to any kind of temperature driven overnight re-freeze for the next few days. This weather event is going to have a pretty significant impact on our snowpack.SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level rising to 2000 m, light west/northwest wind, no significant precipitation, no overnight re-freeze.SUNDAY: Clear skies, light variable wind, freezing level skyrocketing to near 3000 m, no precipitation, no overnight re-freeze.MONDAY: Clear skies, light southeast wind, freezing level holding at 3000 m, no precipitation, no overnight re-freeze.TUESDAY: Clear skies, moderate southeast wind, freezing level lowering to 2800 m, no precipitation, no overnight re-freeze.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday a skier triggered a small wind slab at treeline that resulted in a broken leg. A few small wind slabs were observed on north facing alpine terrain and some natural cornice failure is beginning to be be observed.On Wednesday a skier remote triggered a size 2 wind slab on a northeast facing alpine slope at 2000 m with a crown 40 cm in depth. There are some great photos in this MIN of a size 2.5 wind slab that was skier triggered on a north facing slope on the Slalok/Matier Glacier. As we enter a period of increasing warming it's worth reminding ourselves that glide cracks are to be avoided at all times. They're incredibly unpredictable and when they fail, they often fail big. Glide avalanche concerns are especially important to consider in the Coquihalla area. A recent social media post from a professional in this part of the region does a great job of highlighting the issue. (Link here)This avalanche was reported from the Duffey Lake area on Tuesday. It indicates the nature of the bond between the recent storm snow and old surfaces below may be poor. Most other recent reports from this region have been of small loose snow avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of new snow have been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs, including on south-facing slopes. Beneath this recent snow you may find hard wind-affected snow at higher elevations, soft and faceted snow in shaded and sheltered areas, and melt-freeze crusts on southerly slopes. The middle and lower snowpack is generally well-settled. For Sunday, we're most concerned about the upper 10 to 40 cm of snow.The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. After Saturday night, we're not expecting an overnight re-freeze for at least a few nights. That's going to allow the snowpack to warm and start freeing up a lot of water which acts like lubrication. When it doesn't freeze overnight, this process gets turbo-charged. Could multiple hot days and warm nights wake up deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about for awhile? We're not sure, but now is probably a time to let the mountains do their thing from afar and check back in when the freezing level returns to seasonal norms which could happen by next weekend.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.