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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2019–Mar 1st, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Recently formed wind slabs are sitting on top of buried wind slabs that are sitting on facets (weak, sugary snow). The fresh wind slabs may still be touchy and the buried wind slabs are remaining reactive to human triggers longer than is typical.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm. / Light, northwesterly winds / Alpine low -16.FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 1-5 cm. / Light, southwesterly winds / Alpine high -15.SATURDAY: Sunny / Light, northwesterly winds / Alpine high -22.SUNDAY: Sunny / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine high -18.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, numerous natural wind slab avalanches up to size 2 and several human triggered size 1-1.5s were reported on primarily southern aspects at treeline and above. Here is a link to a video of an avalanche that apparently occurred a few days ago in the Purcells. Great footage that illustrates the current wind slab problem in the region.On Saturday there was a report of a skier triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche 30-50 cm deep on a northeast aspect in the Dogtooth range. This person was seriously injured after being swept over a 30 m cliff and carried by the avalanche for a total of 650 m. Reports of persistent slab avalanches are becoming less frequent which is creating a low likelihood, high consequence scenario in the snowpack that requires discipline and careful terrain selection to manage effectively.

Snowpack Summary

Strong northeasterly ridge-top winds have created fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. Additionally, there are buried wind slabs on a variety of aspects that are sitting on facets (sugary snow) which may cause them to remain reactive to human triggers longer than what is typical for a wind slab problem.Lower down there are two layers of surface hoar (weak, feathery crystals) that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 80 cm deep and are most prominent at treeline and below. The surface hoar may sit on a crust on south facing slopes in specific locations which is a dangerous combination.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that sit on a crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. See the Forecaster Blog here for more information on this problem.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.