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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2016–Mar 23rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Spring is springing! Watch for rapid changes especially if the sun comes out. Continue to evaluate snow, terrain and cornices carefully on Wednesday.

Detailed Forecast

A bit of a break in the weather should be seen Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Southwest flow should begin to carry another front to the Northwest beginning in the Olympics and northwest Cascades Wednesday afternoon and to the rest of the Cascades Wednesday night. Significant new snow layers are generally not expected at Hurricane through most of the daylight hours on Wednesday. Remember that you may need to adjust your plans if the next front arrives with wind and rain or snow sooner than expected.

Continued loose wet snow conditions can't be ruled out on Wednesday especially if there are sun or solar effects. Surface crusts in the morning  don't mean that loose wet snow conditions won't develop by the afternoon. This is mostly likely on solar slopes but can't be ruled out on other aspects. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches and pinwheels or natural releases.

Recently formed cornices have grown large and with another release reported at Mt Hood on Tuesday. Avoid areas on ridges or summits where a cornice may be present and avoid slopes below cornices. Cornice releases can be unpredictable during the spring.

Small areas of previous wind slab may remain present on lee slopes. This should be mainly northwest to southeast aspects near ridges and summits. Firm wind transported snow and snowpack cracking can be good signs of wind slab layers.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

About 2-3 feet of snowfall accumulated at Hurricane March 9-15th.

A combination of sun, mild temperatures and then some rain was seen for several days ending about Sunday 3/20. This weather caused about 10 inches of consolidation of the recent snow at Hurricane which is usually a sign of a strengthening snowpack.

Older winter avalanche problems of wind and storm slab in the Olympics will have mostly settled and stabilized during the mild weather.

Recent storms did build large cornices along ridges in many areas.

A low pressure system crossed the Northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Up to a few inches of new snow is likely at Hurricane.

The mid and lower snowpack in the Olympics should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

A Park ranger at Hurricane found variable surface crusts Saturday morning 3/19, as overnight temperatures remained well over freezing.

A couple reports on Turns All Year for the Olympics for Friday and Saturday 3/18-19 for Mt Angeles and the Seven Lakes Basin indicated big pinwheels on solar slopes, a sign of loose wet snow conditions, and cold snow lingering on non-solar slopes.

Hurricane Weather Station

Internet communications to the station have been disrupted at the NWAC office. The ISP inadvertently disconnected our service and we are anticipating a resumption of service soon. We apologize for the outage and thank you for your patience.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.