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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2016–Dec 30th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

5-10cm of snow is expected to fall in the next 24hrs.  Avalanche danger will remain at considerable in the alpine and at treeline. Human triggered avalanches are still likely.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

About 5-10cm of is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs.  Winds are expected to mellow after the arrival of the front.  Temps will be in the -15cm range.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Thursday but field teams were in the ghost and Kananaskis Valley areas.

Snowpack Summary

A few cms of snow fell throughout the day on Thursday but not enough to change the current danger level or improve the lower elevations.  In the Alpine and at treeline most open areas are wind affected.  These windslabs are overlying the dec 18th facet layer down 20-30cm.  Easy failures have been noted on this interface indicating that it is ripe for a human trigger.  Watch for "drummy" sounds and shooting cracks.  These are all positive indicators that you are moving into more skier triggerable areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.